← The Lab Explainer  ·  Hybrid threats

Drones over Europe.

Since late 2024, unidentified drones have closed some of Europe's busiest airports and circled its military bases, ports and power plants. Most did no physical damage, and most were never caught. What are they, who is flying them, and how worried should someone at home be?

In short

  1. Drone sightings over European airports, bases and power plants rose sharply in 2025 and are still rising in places. Most of the drones watched and disrupted. Only one, at Leipzig, is publicly known to have been armed.
  2. The damage usually comes from the closure, not the drone: cancelled flights, stranded passengers and a sense that nobody is in control.
  3. The strongest public study calls a Russian campaign "highly likely". Russia denies it, and proof that ties a single airport drone to the person flying it is still rare.
  4. Small drones over airports are mostly a police problem. Big drones crossing borders are a military one. Attackers work in the gap between the two.
  5. Some sightings turn out to be planes or nothing at all. Overreacting and shrugging it off both help whoever is behind the real ones.
Part 1

What we mean by a drone.

A drone is simply an aircraft with nobody on board. It is flown by remote control, or it follows a route programmed in advance.

Officials call them UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) or UAS (unmanned aircraft systems). The category is huge. At one end are hobby quadcopters with four rotors and a camera, weighing a few hundred grams and sold online. At the other are military aircraft with wingspans of several metres that can fly hundreds of kilometres. Cheap drones have spread everywhere, and the war in Ukraine has sped up drone technology on all sides.1

The drones that closed European airports in 2025 were not all toys. Copenhagen's police described two or three large drones, flown by "an actor who has the capabilities, the will, and the tools to show off in this way."2 But Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said in October 2025 that none of the drones seen over Germany so far had been armed. All of them, he said, were reconnaissance flights.3

Why does a small drone near an airport matter at all? Because a collision is a real risk. A US government-funded study in 2017 found that a drone does more damage to an aircraft than a bird of the same weight.4 That is why air traffic controllers stop flights first and ask questions later.

Three kinds of drone, and who deals with themFigure 1

Hobby drones

A few hundred grams, a camera, a battery that lasts minutes. Most are harmless and most owners follow the rules.

Who deals with them: police and aviation authorities

Larger, capable drones

Longer range, better cameras, and in some cases able to resist interference. These are the ones seen over airports and bases since 2024.

Who deals with them: usually police, increasingly with army help

Military long-range drones

Wingspans of metres, ranges of hundreds of kilometres. Russia fires them at Ukraine in large numbers, and some have crossed into NATO countries.

Who deals with them: the armed forces and NATO

PoliceThe gapArmy & NATO
Analysts draw the same line. Small drones over airports and infrastructure are mainly a police matter; big drones crossing borders are a military one.1 Much of this story happens in the middle.
Part 2

How we got here: from Gatwick to Leipzig.

The precedent. Just before Christmas 2018, reported drone sightings closed London's Gatwick airport on and off for most of three days. About 1,000 flights were cancelled or diverted and roughly 140,000 passengers were affected. Two local people were arrested and released without charge. Nobody was ever charged, and police later said there may never have been a drone at all.5 Gatwick set the pattern: a possible drone, a long closure, huge disruption and no answer.

The quiet start. From November 2024, drones were reported over US air bases in Germany and England, including Ramstein, Lakenheath and Mildenhall.6

The wave. On 22 September 2025, Copenhagen airport stopped all flights for nearly four hours after large drones were seen; Oslo closed briefly the same night. Denmark's prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, called it "the most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date."7 Days later, French forces boarded a sanctioned tanker, the Boracay, which had been off the Danish coast during the sightings. Prosecutors said it was suspected of involvement; that has not been proven in public.8 Munich closed twice in two days in early October, stranding more than 10,000 passengers.9 In November, drones flew over Belgian air bases, the Doel nuclear power plant and Brussels Airport, which closed because of drones for the first time ever. Between 400 and 500 travellers spent the night on the terminal floor.10

The escalation. On 4 August 2026, a drone carrying plastic explosive was flown at a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle airport in Germany. It didn't go off. On 1 September, Germany's interior minister, Alexander Dobrindt, said the findings "prove a Russian responsibility for the attempted attack." Germany closed a Russian consulate in response. President Putin said "the proof has been planted".11 As far as is publicly known, it was the first armed drone at a European airport.

A timeline of drones over EuropeFigure 2
Small drones over sitesMilitary drones across bordersResponsesBeyond Europe's airspace
  1. Dec 2018Gatwick, UK. About 1,000 flights hit over three days. Nobody charged.
  2. Nov 2024US air bases in Germany and England. Repeated sightings begin.
  3. 10 Sep 2025Poland. About 21 Russian military drones cross the border. NATO jets shoot some down.
  4. 22 Sep 2025Copenhagen and Oslo. Copenhagen halted for nearly four hours; 20,000+ passengers affected.
  5. 2–3 Oct 2025Munich. Shut twice in two days.
  6. 4 Nov 2025Brussels. First drone closure in the airport's history.
  7. 9 Nov 2025Doel and Liège, Belgium. Three drones over a nuclear plant; Liège airport halted.
  8. Feb 2026EU counter-drone plan; new German law. Money for detection; the German army may act at home.
  9. 2 Jul 2026IISS report. 144 incursions studied; a Russian campaign judged "highly likely".
  10. 4 Aug 2026Leipzig/Halle. A drone with explosives is flown at a Ukrainian cargo plane. Germany blames Russia on 1 September.
  11. 23 Sep 2026Berlin BER. Runways shut for about an hour.
  12. 1 Oct 2026Denmark corrects the record. Soldiers "may have fired" at a passenger plane in 2025.
  13. 8 Oct 2026Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Houthi strike destroys a parked airliner; three killed.
  14. 13–15 Oct 2026Black Sea, off Romania and Bulgaria. Drones hit merchant ships; sailors killed and missing.
Selected events. Sources for each are in the notes to the relevant section.
Part 3

Why it keeps making the news.

There are three reasons. The numbers really have gone up. The closures are impossible to miss. And political leaders chose to call them attacks.

The numbers. Euronews' fact-checking team reviewed public reports from more than 24 airports in 12 countries and found that drone disruptions roughly quadrupled between January 2024 and November 2025.12 National figures point the same way, and in Berlin the rise has not stopped.13

Drone disruptions at airports, before and after the waveFigure 3

Germany, all airports disruptions counted by air traffic control (DFS)

2024
141
2025
192

Denmark, near airports illegal drone flights logged

2024
92
2025
107

Berlin BER drones logged by controllers

All of 2025
8
Jan–Jun 2026
28
Each pair is drawn to its own scale, so compare within a pair, not across them. Berlin's 2026 figure covers only six months.

The closures got longer. In December 2024, a drone at Copenhagen caused a ten-minute pause with no cancellations. In September 2025, the same airport shut for nearly four hours, with more than 100 flights cancelled.12 A cut cable under the sea is invisible. A closed airport is on every departures board and in every stranded traveller's social media feed.

How a closure happens. Usually someone reports a drone: a pilot, a controller, a guard or a member of the public. The authorities then decide, with air traffic control, whether to stop flights. At Munich in May 2026, two pilots reported a possible drone; police said security authorities closed the runways "in coordination with German air traffic control". Flights resumed about an hour later, and no threat was found.14 Nobody can tell at once what the object is or who is flying it, so caution wins. That caution is exactly what makes drones such an effective nuisance.

The politics. Leaders in Denmark, Germany and Belgium didn't describe these as nuisances. They called them attacks, spying or hybrid warfare. That turned airport delays into national security stories.

Part 4

What the drones are actually doing.

In most cases, they watch, they disrupt and they test. It helps to think of it in layers, from the most common to the most worrying.

Five layers of the threatFigure 4
1

DisruptionThe closure itself: cordons, stranded passengers, cargo that doesn't move. In the airport cases, nothing exploded.

Most cases
2

WatchingMapping military bases, shipyards, power plants and canals: where things are and how they are guarded.

Most cases
3

TestingProbing how fast defences react and who makes the decisions.

Some cases
4

EscalationA drone that carries a weapon. Leipzig, August 2026, is the one known case at a European airport.

One known case
5

FearThe sense that nothing is safe and nobody is in control. Every closure and false alarm adds to it.

Every case
The layers overlap. A single flight can disrupt, watch and test at the same time.

Watching. In July 2026 the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a London research institute, published a study of 144 drone incursions across Europe. About half were over military sites, including a base that holds US nuclear bombs and France's nuclear submarine base.15 At Volkel in the Netherlands, a base linked to NATO's nuclear sharing, drones appeared over several nights; troops fired at them and recovered nothing.16 On 9 November 2025, three drones were seen over the Doel nuclear power plant near Antwerp. The operator said there was no impact on the plant.10

Testing. Belgium's defence minister, Theo Francken, described drones arriving in two waves: small ones first, which tested the radio frequencies used to block them, then larger ones on a different frequency. "This is not the work of amateurs," he said.17 The IISS describes the whole campaign as mapping allied weak points and probing how military and civilian officials make decisions.15

Escalation. Germany's interior minister called Leipzig "a new level of danger."18 It is one case. It matters because it shows what is possible, not because it is typical.

Fear. This is the layer that reaches most people. The IISS notes that the campaign was designed to stay below the level that would trigger a collective NATO response.15 Our explainer The Changing Nature of War calls this space the grey zone. Your calm is part of what is being aimed at.

Part 5

Who's flying them.

This is the hardest question, and the one where care matters most. The strongest public assessment points to Russia. Russia denies it. And very few individual drones have been traced to whoever flew them.

Why it's so hard to prove. A drone pilot can be several kilometres away, in a car, on a rooftop or on a ship offshore. The drone can leave before police arrive, and if it is never recovered there is nothing to examine. Without clear attribution, there is no clear response.

The case for Russia. The IISS judged it "highly likely" that Russia ran a coordinated campaign, and that ships of the "shadow fleet" were used as launch platforms.15 The shadow fleet is a set of old tankers with murky ownership and flags of convenience, used to move Russian oil around sanctions. Ships are useful for this because they can wait in international waters near a coast without crossing anyone's border.

Who has said what, and how firmlyFigure 5
DeniesFormally blames
  • Formal attributionGermany's government, 1 Sep 2026The findings "prove a Russian responsibility" for the armed drone at Leipzig.11
  • "Highly likely"IISS research institute, Jul 2026A coordinated Russian campaign, likely using shadow-fleet ships. Based on patterns and ship tracking, not recovered drones.15
  • AssumptionFriedrich Merz, German chancellor, Oct 2025"Our assumption is that Russia is behind most of these drone flights."3
  • PlausibleTheo Francken, Belgian defence minister, Nov 2025"Not the work of amateurs"; Russian involvement plausible.17
  • Can't rule it outMette Frederiksen, Danish prime minister, Sep 2025"I certainly cannot deny in any way that it is Russia."7
  • DeniesRussia, throughoutDenies involvement. Its ambassador to Denmark called suspicions "baseless"; President Putin has said Russia "is not waging a sabotage campaign" in Europe.715
Wording matters. "Assume", "plausible" and "highly likely" are not the same as "proved". According to AP, Sweden is the only country that has directly blamed Moscow for sightings in this wave, apart from Germany's attribution of the Leipzig drone.19

The case for caution. The evidence is mostly circumstantial: patterns, timing and ship-tracking data rather than a recovered drone tied to a named ship. A UK defence police inquiry found no conclusive link to Russia for the sightings it examined, and Denmark's Defence Command did not link its sightings to Russia either.19 The monitoring group Dronewatch Europe says the IISS report does not present physical evidence linking any specific drone to any specific vessel. An Oxford researcher, Dr David Bacci, warns that "it's not that easy to retrace everything to Russia": some operators may be sympathisers, amateurs or copycats.20

False alarms are real too. On 1 October 2026, Denmark's military admitted that during the 2025 scare, soldiers at the Borris training camp "may have fired into the air while a civilian aircraft passed by." It still says drones were seen at the camp on three nights in September 2025, and who sent them is still unknown.21

Both are true

Some sightings are mistakes, and some drones are real and hostile. A campaign built to confuse benefits from both. Overreacting gives an attacker disruption for free. Shrugging it off lets the watching go unchecked.

Part 6

The big drones: Poland and the eastern border.

Everything so far has been about small drones over airports and bases, whose owners are hard to prove. The eastern border shows the other kind: military drones whose origin is not in doubt.

During the night of 9–10 September 2025, as Russia launched a large attack on Ukraine, about 21 Russian military drones crossed into Polish airspace, many of them via Belarus. Polish F-16s and Dutch F-35s, supported by Italian surveillance aircraft and German air defences, shot down several. It was the first time NATO aircraft had engaged Russian drones over a member's territory. Prosecutors later said the drones recovered were unarmed decoys, some partly made of polystyrene.22

One night over Poland, 9–10 September 2025Figure 6
~21Russian drones entered Polish airspace
4airports closed, including Warsaw Chopin
0drones found to be carrying explosives
1house roof destroyed, by a stray air-to-air missile that failed to explode
Poland then asked for consultations under NATO's Article 4, and NATO launched a new mission, Eastern Sentry, to watch its eastern flank.22

Three things stand out. First, an airport doesn't need to be the target to be shut. Warsaw Chopin closed because of the threat, not because anything hit it. Second, the defence itself can cause harm: a missile fired at a drone came down on a house in the village of Wyryki. Third, the costs are lopsided. Cheap decoys brought out fighter jets, surveillance aircraft and missiles worth far more than they were.

Part 7

Beyond Europe's skies: ships and airports.

Two recent cases, one on the EU's own coastline and one far beyond it, show where this can lead when drones and missiles are used in open conflict. They are not the same as the airport sightings. They are a picture of what civilian infrastructure faces when the dial is turned up.

When civilian infrastructure is hitFigure 7

The Black Sea

13–15 Oct 2026
What happened
Drones hit several merchant ships off Romania and Bulgaria. The tanker Wine Trader caught fire just outside Romanian waters; seven of its twelve crew were still missing a day later. The Yara J was hit inside Romanian waters; its crew survived. A ship off Bulgaria sank.
Who's blamed
A NATO military source told Reuters the drones came from Russia. Romania's foreign minister said Russia "bears full responsibility"; its president said it was too early to say definitively. Bulgaria's prime minister: "We cannot prove it."
Lesson: you don't need to sink every ship to disrupt trade. You need to make the route dangerous, uncertain and expensive.23

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

8 Oct 2026
What happened
A Houthi strike hit King Khalid International Airport. A parked Saudia airliner was destroyed and three people were killed, including its pilot. Several airlines suspended flights, with at least 124 flights affected.
Which weapon
The Houthis said they fired a ballistic missile that day. It was part of a wider campaign of missiles and drones, and not every impact has been matched to a weapon.
Lesson: an airport is built to be open to thousands of people. That makes it hard to protect and slow to restart.24
Figures as reported in the days after each attack; casualty numbers may change as investigations continue.

The common thread is reach: cheap, long-range weapons can now threaten infrastructure far from any front line. Food, fuel and parts reach Europe by sea and by air. A strike hundreds of kilometres away can show up as a higher insurance premium, a delayed delivery or a cancelled connection.

Part 8

Why they're so hard to stop.

Stopping a small drone takes four steps. Each one has its own problem.

Four steps to stop a droneFigure 8
Step 1

See it

Air defences were built to find planes and missiles. A small drone is the size of a large bird and flies low and slow.

Radar struggles to tell drones from birds.
Step 2

Identify it

Is it a toy, a lost delivery drone, a bird, a plane's lights, or something hostile?

Nobody can tell straight away, so airports close first.
Step 3

Decide who acts

Over an airport or a power plant, the country is legally at peace, so the police are usually in charge.

The police often lack the tools; the army often lacks the powers.
Step 4

Act safely

Whatever is hit comes down somewhere. Blocking signals can also disrupt GPS for everyone nearby.

Danish police chose not to shoot in 2025, for safety.
Oxford's Dr David Bacci: "the problem is growing faster than the solutions are deployed."25

The gap between police and army. This is the heart of the problem. In Germany, for example, state police are responsible for drones but often lack the equipment, and until February 2026 the army's room to help at home was tightly restricted.26 An attacker doesn't have to beat the army. It only has to fly where the police are in charge and don't have the tools.

Where the attacker fliesFigure 9
A country seen from above. The army and NATO watch the border. Inside, the police are responsible for airports, power plants and ports. A drone flies in the space between: inside the border, where police are in charge but lack the tools. THE BORDER · ARMY AND NATO WATCH HERE INSIDE · POLICE ARE IN CHARGE Airport Power plant Port Too small for the army's radar, beyond the police's tools
Simplified. The exact split of powers differs from country to country, and several are now changing it.

The cost mismatch. Shooting down a cheap drone with a missile can cost several hundred thousand to a million euros.27 Defending against the war you can see is expensive. The pressure below the line is cheap.

The price of attack and defenceFigure 10
Hobby dronebought online
Cheap military dronee.g. decoys over Poland
Interceptor missilefired to bring one down
€100€1k€10k€100k€1m
Rough ranges on a scale where each step is ten times the last. Drone prices are typical market and reported estimates; the missile range is from ECFR and Al Jazeera.27
Part 9

What governments are doing about it.

The response has three parts: new powers to act, more money for detection and counter-drone equipment, and tighter rules for ordinary owners. It is uneven from country to country, and much of it is still being built.

The EU's counter-drone money for 2026Figure 11

New powers

Since February 2026, Germany's army may act against drones when civilian authorities ask, including shooting them down. Flying a drone into airport airspace is now a crime carrying up to two years in prison.26

Detection and coordination

The EU plan promises detection using 5G phone networks, an annual counter-drone exercise and a centre of excellence in 2027. Its "Drone Wall" was renamed the "Drone Initiative".28

Rules for owners

Most camera drones in the EU must already be registered. The Commission promises to renew the rules and create an "EU Trusted Drone" label.28 During the 2025 scare, Denmark banned private drone flights nationwide around an EU summit.29

Source: European Commission counter-drone action plan, 11 February 2026.28

After Leipzig, Germany said it would expand the federal police's anti-drone unit.30 Analysts say what is still missing is a clear, consistent way for police to deal with drones over critical sites, and a shared European picture of incidents so coordinated operations can be spotted.1 The IISS puts it simply: a credible response "requires legal clarity."15

One change deserves attention in its own right. In a country like Germany, letting the army act at home is a big step, taken carefully for good historical reasons. So is detecting drones through phone networks. Neither is a reason for alarm. Both are reasonable things for citizens to ask about.

Part 10

What this means for you.

For most people, drones over Europe arrive as a cancelled flight, a new rule or a frightening headline, not as physical danger. On one night in September 2025, more than 20,000 passengers were affected across Copenhagen and Oslo.7 That is the scale at which this touches ordinary lives.

Your trip

Closures are usually short, but they ripple through connections, crews and cargo.

Your hobby

If you fly a drone, the rules are tightening. In Germany, flying near an airport can now mean prison.

Your rights

New powers for armies at home and phone-network detection are fair things to ask questions about.

Your nerves

Most drones were watching, not attacking. Some sightings were planes. Both facts help you stay calm.

Your part

Many useful leads start with someone noticing something and reporting it to the police.

Our view

The drones over Europe are not a reason to be afraid. They are a reason to understand how this kind of pressure works. It is cheap and hard to trace, and it is built to make us react badly, by panicking or by ignoring it.

The best answer from citizens is calm attention: know who is responsible, ask them what they are doing, and don't pass on a scare before it has been checked.

Some questions worth asking, and who can answer them:

  1. 1
    When a drone is reported near my airport, who decides to close the runway, and how quickly can they confirm whether it's real?Your airport operator and national air traffic control
  2. 2
    Over a power plant, port or water works in my country, who is allowed to take a drone down, police or army, and how long does that decision take?Your interior ministry, or parliament's defence and home affairs committees
  3. 3
    When officials call something a hybrid attack and it later turns out to be a plane, who corrects the record, and how will the public hear about it?Your national government
  4. 4
    If drones are tracked using phone networks, what protects ordinary people's data?The European Commission and your national data protection authority
Words to know

A short glossary.

Drone UAV · UAS
An aircraft with nobody on board, flown remotely or on a pre-set route.
Counter-drone
Anything used to find, track, block or bring down a drone.
Jamming
Drowning out the radio signal that controls or guides a drone.
Remote ID
A digital number plate a drone broadcasts so authorities can tell who it belongs to.
Critical infrastructure
What a country can't run without: power, water, ports, airports, telecoms.
Reconnaissance
Watching and mapping a place, usually to prepare something later.
Incursion
A drone or aircraft entering airspace where it isn't allowed.
Shadow fleet
Old tankers with murky ownership used to move Russian oil around sanctions; suspected of launching drones.
Attribution
Working out who did it, and being confident enough to say so in public.
Hybrid attack
Hostile acts by one state against another, kept below the level that would count as war, so they are hard to prove and hard to answer.

Notes.

Every claim can be traced. Tap a number in the text to see its note.

  1. Ulrike Franke, "Buzzkill: How to defend Europe against drones", European Council on Foreign Relations, 17 August 2026. ↩
  2. Copenhagen police chief Jens Jespersen, quoted in CNN, 23 September 2025. ↩
  3. FAA-funded ASSURE study on drone–aircraft collisions, 2017, as summarised by ASME. ↩
  4. BBC and Guardian reporting, December 2018, as compiled in "Gatwick Airport drone incident"; Newshub, 24 December 2018. Figures are approximate. ↩
  5. CNN, 23 September 2025, including Frederiksen's remarks and the Russian ambassador's response; Euronews (note 3). ↩
  6. AFP via Maritime Executive, 1 October 2025, and NV, 2 October 2025. ↩
  7. Reuters (note 3); Malay Mail, 4 October 2025. ↩
  8. AP (Lorne Cook), Belgium drone cancellations, 5 November 2025; Belga via Bluewin, 10 November 2025. ↩
  9. Euronews / The Cube (note 3). ↩
  10. DFS, "Air traffic in Germany 2025", January 2026; Danish figures from the Danish aviation authority via Euronews (note 3); Berlin figures from dpa via Meduza, 23 September 2026. ↩
  11. Stars and Stripes (note 15); AP reporting compiled in "2025 European drone sightings". ↩
  12. AP, 5 November 2025 (note 10); Euronews (note 3). ↩
  13. AP, 2 July 2026 (note 15). ↩
  14. Dronewatch Europe, quoted in The Aviationist, 3 July 2026; Dr David Bacci (University of Oxford), quoted in Euronews (note 3). ↩
  15. dpa via Bluewin, 10 September 2025; reporting compiled in "2025 Russian drone incursion into Poland", including the Lublin prosecutors' findings and the Wyryki missile. ↩
  16. Reuters reporting via Euromaidan Press, 16 October 2026; The Star, 15 October 2026. Casualty figures were still being updated at the time of writing. ↩
  17. ECFR (note 1); Euronews (note 3). ↩
  18. ECFR (note 1); Al Jazeera (note 18). ↩
  19. European Commission, "New plan to counter drone threats", 11 February 2026; Eunews, 11 February 2026. ↩
  20. Reuters reporting compiled in "2025 European drone sightings" (note 16); Euronews/AFP (note 21). ↩

Part of The Lab, Homefront's articles, research and maps.

More from the LabThis week's Signals